University of Virginia Library

Visitations and calamities

During this reign, calamities were numerous, especially at the beginning
of the period. In the "Annals" for the reign, calamities are recorded in
almost every year. There does seem to have been a succession of favorable
seasons in Emperor Hsüan's reign and a succession of droughts at
the beginning of Emperor Yüan's reign. It is, moreover, likely that
many of these calamities are recorded because the Confucians emphasized
them as a means of expressing a veiled criticism of the reign, especially
of the power exercised by Shih Hsien, and as a means of pointing
out the need for governmental reform. Tung Chung-shu had taught
that when something is wrong in the government, Heaven sends a visitation
(tsai); if matters are not corrected, Heaven then sends a prodigy
(yi) to terrify the culprit. In themselves, these droughts, floods, fires,
frosts, comets, eclipses, and earthquakes are not improbable; the unusual
number recorded in this reign is very likely due to the fact that such
events were usually somewhat neglected and were emphasized chiefly

when people, because of their dissatisfaction with the government,
expected them. Conversely, in a good and prosperous reign, such as
those of Emperors Hsüan and Chang, people expected auspicious visitations,
hence saw and reported supernatural birds, sweet dew, etc. These
visitations were thus probably all natural events, some of which (e.g.
the supernatural birds) were merely misinterpretations of what had
actually been seen. What made them visitations was merely the interpretation
put upon them in accordance with Confucian teaching.

Because of the Confucian doctrine that Heaven sends warnings to the
ruler by means of portents, Emperor Yüan in his edicts (probably drafted
for him by his Confucian ministers) asked for explanations of these
events, seeking to know where the fault lay, and intelligent Confucians
took the opportunity to suggest changes in the government. Some
blamed the portents upon the machinations of Shih Hsien, but Emperor
Yüan would not accept such interpretations. In accordance with
Confucian doctrine, these natural events became the occasion for governmental
reforms.