University of Virginia Library

Doubtful Future

The long-run future of the
military-political process
created by the Paris accord is
more doubtful. The war may
re-escalate, gradually at first,
then with accelerating
intensity. There is the
possibility, too, that the
conflict will continue
indefinitely at a lower level of
military engagement, with one
of two possible consequences.
Either one side will gain the
upper hand or the conflict will
be protracted. Official
Washington gives the Saigon
regime a "decent chance," as
we are told, to prevail in the
latter circumstance. There is
little likelihood that Saigon
will defeat the Viet Cong. In
any event, President Nixon will
be able to claim to have
achieved peace with honor for
the United States in this first
real test of the Nixon Doctrine
in action.

The Saigon regime may be
less sanguine about its future
and its honor. A protracted
conflict in which all parties
survive, each with population
and territory under its effective
control, would be tantamount
to the second partition of
Vietnam, now into three parts,
and under the respective
domination of North Vietnam,
the Viet Cong and the Saigon
government.