University of Virginia Library

Walter Bardenwerper

Does New Hampshire Mean Anything?

This is the day of the payoff
in New Hampshire. With only
18 delegates at stake no one is
believing, as Senator Muskie
would have us believe, that the
only result that matters is who
gets the most votes and those
18 delegates. But Muskie's new
interpretation of the number 1
primary is not a surprising
development.

Since his emotional
outburst in defense of his wife
in Manchester last week the
polls have indicated that there
has been a considerable erosion
in Muskie's electoral
following. Whether that decline
in support is attributable in
large measure to his attack on
Publisher William Loeb of The
Manchester Union Leader
is open to question. But if the
polls are any barometer of the
political atmosphere in New
Hampshire, then there must be
considerable nervousness in the
Muskie camp today. For this is
Muskie's home territory, he has
been consistently the
front-runner, and he has stated
that he would be disappointed
with a showing of under 50
per cent

The latest Boston Globe
poll suggests that Muskie may
very well leave New Hampshire
a disappointed man. Since
January 24 his support has
fallen precipitously from 65
per cent to 42 per cent,
according to the Globe
findings. Of course, a
disappointment for Muskie is a
welcome encouragement for
his myriad opponents. But
which of them stands to gain?

If one can write off Edward
Coll, the Connecticut activist
too young to be president
anyway, and Senator(?) Hartke
of Indiana whose support
peaked in the Globe's polls at 2
per cent, there remains only
Mayor Yorty of Los Angeles,
Rep. Wilbur Mills of Arkansas
and Senator McGovern of
South Dakota. It seems safe to
say that the Yortymobile has
not yet made a sufficient
impression upon the nation's
political seriousness to give
Muskie any cause to worry.
Rep. Mills' write-in campaign
may make some inroads, but it
is doubtful that he will attract
any large segment of Muskie's
lost 23 per cent. So we are left
with what is essentially a
contest between Sens.
McGovern and Muskie. And
this is where the results really
matter.

McGovern has been
Muskie's leading contender
since the outset and has
maintained a solid second place
in the polls. But his strength
has not increased
commensurate with Muskie's
decline, suggesting, of course,
that a large portion of New
Hampshire voters are keeping
their preference a secret until
they cast their ballots. Thus,
these "Undecided" New
Hampshirites are in a position
to wield a great deal of power
in determining the shape of the
political landscape for
McGovern and Muskie when
the winter-weary candidates
split for Florida. Either Muskie
will garner his 50% and be
rightfully elated, or he will fall
slightly short of that and be
superficially elated, or he will
fall far short of 50% in which
case McGovern
will (presumably) be elated.
Whatever the outcome, it is
safe to assume that the winners
and losers alike will interpret it
in whatever light shows their
side's best interests, and New
Hampshire will be held over
our heads as some sort of
indicator of who the
Democratic voters want.

But what, if anything, will
the results of the New
Hampshire primary indicate?
Certainly it will be legitimate to
interpret the results as the grass
roots preference of the
Democratic voters in New
Hampshire. But New
Hampshire is only slightly
larger that Fairfax and
Arlington Counties in Virginia
or the city of San Francisco.
Just because the people of
these small New England
Hamlets choose earliest there is
no particular reason why their
votes are exceptionally
important. The returns from
New Hampshire should be seen
in relation to their numerical
magnitude, not as a test of the
candidates' present nationwide
strength.

In light of Muskie's
familiarity in New England,
and especially in light of the
Loeb smear campaign, it
seems likely that, whatever
the results, the New Hampshire
primary will be a deceptive
parameter by which to judge
everyone's present electoral
strength. The campaign for the
Democratic nomination is still
in its early stages; there are
thousands of miles to cover
and thousands of hands to
shake. At this point it would
be foolish to try to build too
formidable a case for any
position based on the returns
from New Hampshire.