University of Virginia Library

Central War Issue Involves
Vietnam As One Nation Or Two

assumption that Peking was a
deadly enemy of U.S. interests
in the Far East and that a
communist success in Vietnam
would be reflected in
communist victories elsewhere:
in Indonesia, Thailand and
perhaps in Korea. American
intervention did not settle the
civil war in Vietnam, but it did
prevent the North from
imposing a communist
government on the South.

The struggle for power in
Vietnam after the French
departure in 1954 has always
been around one central issue:
will there be one Vietnam
controlled from Hanoi, or two
Vietnams– one communist and
the other non-communist. This
was the issue also in Korea in
1950, and to some extent in
Germany until 1972. On this
issue, both the civil war and
the international conflict in
Vietnam have been fought.

Will there now be peace in
Vietnam? In the view of this
writer, the answer hinges
largely on what the great
powers now do. If China and
the Soviet Union refrain from
giving Hanoi additional
war-making material and help
to stop the warfare in the
South, the violence can
probably be contained. Also,
the United States has a
responsibility to prevent the
Saigon government from
liquidating Viet Cong forces in
those areas of South Vietnam
they controlled prior to the
cease fire.

But it is not realistic to
think that the civil war in
Vietnam is now at an end and
that North and South Vietnam
will live in peace. Terrorism
will continue in South
Vietnam, and some small-scale
insurgency will erupt from
time to time because the Viet
Cong are not likely to give up
their armed struggle until they
are given a place in a South
Vietnamese government. And
President Thieu, who seems to
have increased his political
power, if not prestige, in the
South following the failure of
last spring's communist
offensive, is not likely to give
the NLF a place in the
government unless it gives up
its revolutionary warfare.

What has changed since
1965, and what probably holds
the key to the future of North
and South Vietnam, is that the
great powers no longer find it
in their own interests to
support the civil war there.
President Nixon's diplomacy
has cleverly exploited the
antagonisms between Moscow
and Peking and caused them to
join Washington in "cooling" it
in Vietnam. If this great power
understanding holds for the
next few years, the likelihood
that North Vietnam will launch
another large-scale attack on
the South is small.

Vietnam has been a painful
and costly experience for the
United States; but it has been a
hundred times worse for South
Vietnam. Yet, it is just possible
that a new and viable nation
has emerged in the South from
this long struggle and will soon
become constructive element
for peace and progress in
Southeast Asia. If this hopeful
prognosis proves correct over
the next few years, we may
one day look back on these
agonizing eight years and say:
"It was worth it."