University of Virginia Library

Holton Hopes For Increased
Black Voter Response

is expected to attract a significant
portion of the potent labor force
and at least 25 per cent of the
powerful Black vote of the district.
The visit to Norfolk by Ronald
Reagan earlier this month is expected
to help Mr. Holton capture
part of the inscrutable conservative
vote.

The Third District, composed of
Richmond City and Henrico and
Chesterfield Counties, is a political
showcase of incompatibility. Richmond
with its large black registration
frequently supports liberal
candidates, while the surrounding
counties are heavily conservative.
Rarely does a candidate carry all
three units of this district, but Mr.
Holton has put together a coalition
which may be able to do so.

The VCV endorsement of the
Republican has its strongest influence
in the city. Most observers
believe Mr. Holton will get at least
75 per cent of the black bloc. This
is extremely significant in light of
his failure to attract more than a
handful of these votes four years
ago. On the other hand, his support
by several hundred heretofore Democratic
businessmen has bolstered
his chances of capturing an even
greater portion of the conservative
vote in the suburbs.

Although he lost here by 9,000
votes in 1965, he should be able to
carry the district this year.

The state's Fourth District, still
a bastion of racism, lies south of
Richmond and will no doubt

The Fifth District includes the
rest of Southside Virginia and even
reaches into some far southwestern
counties. While the eastern part of
this district is similar to the fourth,
the mountainous counties in the
west are much more progressively
oriented. There are several counties
which the Republicans never fail to
remain in the Democratic column.
Republicans have never showed
much strength in this area. In 1965,
Mr. Holton ran a poor third in this
district. The large Conservative vote
indicates a substantial degree of
political alienation among the low-income,
white element here. However,
Mr. Holton expects to
improve his showing among the
black voters, which comprise 40 per
cent of this district's electorate.

carry, and their influence appears
to be having a moderating influence
eastward, as evidenced by the
closely competitive situation developing
in Martinsville and even a
growing GOP opposition in South
Boston. Mr. Battle should again
carry the district for the Democrats,
but his party's margin should
be greatly reduced.

Mr. Holton's showing in this
district, which has in certain areas
become pivotal, could be indicative
of his success or failure across the
district,

Mr. Holton's showing in this
district, which has in certain areas
become pivotal, could be indicative
of his success or failure across the
state. To be elected, Mr. Battle will
have to carry this district by a
substantial margin, as have all his
Democratic predecessors.

A look at these first five districts
seems to indicate that Mr. Holton's
chances are not too good. But the significant factor of these districts
is that it is here that the Democrats
traditionally roll up their margin of
victory, a margin which this year
does not purport to be nearly as
large as in past years.

The Sixth District, Mr. Holton's
home district, will once again
support him; the question is only,
by how much? This district has
been a Republican stronghold since
1952, and during the Godwin
administration has grown increasingly
enthusiastic for its favorite
son.

While Mr. Holton carried the
Sixth by only 6,000 votes last time,
he is expected to, at the very least,
double this margin. Mr. Battle's
main task across the state will be to
try to offset this large Republican
majority.

The large Seventh District covers
the entire west-central region of the
state. This is a strongly competitive
district where Mr. Holton lost by
only 1,000 votes out of 45,000 cast
last time.

Although this is Mr. Battle's
home district, the Democrats concede
that they will not be able to
do as successfully as Mr. Holton
will in the Sixth. While most
observers consider the rate here to
be a toss-up, if any one has the edge
it is probably Holton.

The district breaks down basically
into three areas. The eastern
counties, centering around Culpeper,
lean toward the Democrats,
with the exception of strongly-competitive
Charlottesville. Mr.
Battle will carry this area. The
northern region also tends to
provide Democratic majorities, although
it is much less predictable
than the east. The southern region,
dominated by Waynesboro and
Staunton, is heavily Republican,
and "Buz" Dawbarn, the GOP
candidate for Lieutenant Governor,
resides here. A large Republican
majority here could offset the
smaller, Democratic ones in the
other two regions.

The sprawling Eight District has
been drastically changed by reapportionment.
Four years ago, Mr.
Holton suffered a 10,000 vote
deficit here, but this is not to be
the case this year.

The addition of a portion of
heavily-Republican Fairfax County
and the loss of several traditionally
Democratic counties will improve
Mr. Holton's showing this year.
More significantly, however, the
almost-nonexistent GOP organization
of 1965 has been superseded
by an efficient, new one in the
wake of William Scott's two successful
Congressional campaigns.

The outcome of the race in the
Eighth is this year too close to call.

The Ninth District encompasses
the state's southwest corner. This
district is characterized by a strong,
two-party system. In close returns,
Mr. Godwin carried the "Fighting
Ninth" in 1965, but t td in
this area has been Republican since
then.

The outcome of tomorrow's
election is still uncertain. Clearly
the Republicans have their best
chance since Reconstruction of
upsetting Democratic control. A
tenuous coalition of disenchanted
Democrats, discouraged conservatives,
and ever-patient Republicans
seem to have the power to
make Mr. Holton the governor. The
only question is whether this
coalition will still be with him
tomorrow.