University of Virginia Library

Professor Finds State
Politics In Rapid Flux

A new Virginia politics emerged
in 1969 in which old-line conservative
Democrats lost the capacity to
win their party's nominations for
Statewide offices and whose future
impact will be only to resolve
a-party conflicts between
moderates and liberals, says a
University political scientist.

Ralph Eisenberg, associate director
of the University's Institute of
Government, notes in a detailed
analysis of the 1969 Democratic
primary that the old Byrd Organization
"must be deemed responsible
for the moderate victory in the
close runoff for Governor" last
August, although Organization candidates
were soundly beaten in the
July primary.

Impact On Organization

The runoff result, in which
William C. Battle of Charlottesville
defeated State Senator Henry
Howell Jr. of Norfolk, "suggests
that the future impact of the
Organization will be to affect the
outcome of other moderate-liberal
conflicts," says Mr. Eisenberg.

"It is clear, as evident earlier in
the 1968 Democratic party convention,
that none of the three factions
can prevail without aid from
another. Control of the party and
its nominations undoubtedly will
require that accommodations be
made," he adds.

Published Study

Mr. Eisenberg's study of the
primary will appear in the February
15 issue of the University of
Virginia News Letter published by
the Institute of Government.

The University political scientist
observes that the nearly successful
challenge made by the liberal
Howell "must be attributed to the
turnout and failure of non-central
city Virginians to vote in the
primaries. The proportion of votes
cast by central cities magnified the
weight of liberal Democrats and
ironically made rural support a vital
part of the moderate victory."

The outcome of the primary
elections where liberals and moderates
are the contenders "will hinge
on the size of the urban Democratic
vote and its distribution between
city and suburb," Mr. Eisenberg
writes.

Small Total Vote

According to Mr. Eisenberg,
"the most significant aspect of the
primary elections undoubtedly was
the relatively small total vote.

"Although the 433, 613 votes
cast for Governor in August was a
record for a primary election," he
says, "it exceeded by only 453
votes the previous high in the
Spong-Robertson primary for the
U.S. Senate in 1966. Considering
the heat of the 1969 campaign and
the fact that 1969 marked the first
year that the poll ta payment was
no longer a prerequisite for voting
in a State election, the number of
votes cast in the primary was
disappointing," Mr. Eisenberg adds.

Tangible Clues

"The comparatively small
turnout in the two primary
elections and its variations in
incidence," says Mr. Eisenberg,
"were the first tangible clues that
1969 contained the ingredients for
startling political change in Virginia,"
most notably the election of
the first Republican governor in a
century.

Block Voting

Turning to the block voting by
black Virginians, Mr. Eisenberg
observes that the massive support
of blacks for Senator Howell
contributed significantly to his near
victory. However, in an analysis of
40 predominantly black precincts
throughout the State, Mr. Eisenberg
found that these precincts had an
increase in voters from the July 15
primary to the August 19 runoff of
2.5 per cent, "far below the
increase of over 6 per cent for the
State and over 9 per cent for the
suburbs."