University of Virginia Library

After 1970 Census

Expert Views District Changes

Virginia is not expected to pick up
any new seats in Congress as the result of
the 1970 Census although congressional
district boundaries may be altered substantially,
says a population expert at the
University.

An analysis of population shifts within
the State since the 1960 Census by
Charles O. Meiburg shows that the
principal change in Virginia is "likely to
come in the Eighth District where
currently suburban and rural interests are
both significant."

"If suburban localities emerge as the
dominant factor in a redrawn Eighth
District, as now appears likely, this will
mark the first time that the metropolitan areas
of the State will be able to elect as many as half
of Virginia's congressional delegation," Mr.
Meiburg says.

Mr. Meiburg, who is director of the Bureau
of Population and Economic Research at the
University's Graduate School of Business
Administration, directs studies into population
and economic trends in the State. His estimate
of projected Census results will appear in the
December 15 issue of the University of Virginia
News Letter, published by the Institute of
Government.

Mr. Meiburg says that there are approximately
4.78 million persons in Virginia's 10
congressional districts with the average size of a
single district totalling 478,000 persons.

Estimates of population within districts as
they are now defined vary from a low of about
385,000 in the Ninth District, which stretches
westward from Pulaski and Giles counties to
the Tennessee and Kentucky borders, to a high
of 587,000 in the Eighth District which extends
from Loudoun and Fairfax counties southward
to Charles City county east of Richmond,
according to Mr. Meiburg.

With the exception of the Third District,
which includes the City of Richmond and
Henrico and Chesterfield counties, "there
would seem to be a strong likelihood that all
congressional district boundaries in the State
will have to be redrawn following the 1970
Census," Mr. Meiburg says. He adds, however,
that even the Third District "may not escape
change because of the rapid growth of its
suburban counties."

"The projected results of the Census reflect
the general movement of Virginia's population
out of rural communities and central cities. The
suburbs of Washington in the Northern Virginia
area, situated in the Eighth and Tenth Districts,
have grown rapidly, as have the suburban areas
of the cities of Virginia Beach and Hampton,
and York county in the First District. The
population of each of these districts is now
about 20 per cent above the average district,"
according to Mr. Meiburg.

Also in the Tidewater, the population of the
Second District, which includes the cities of
Norfolk and Portsmouth, has declined largely
because of migration to the suburbs, Mr.
Meiburg reports.

The Fourth, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh and Ninth
Districts, which are predominantly rural, have
shown population declines since the last Census
and are approximately 10 per cent below the
average size district. "It would appear, therefore,
that new lines will have to be drawn,
generally shifting the present boundaries to the
north and east, to enlarge the geographical area
of those districts with below average populations
and to compress further the area of those
districts with above average populations," says
the University researcher.

While congressional district boundary lines
are likely to be shifted substantially with the
major change coming in the vast Eighth, "there
will probably not be any great shift in the
character of any single district," says Mr.
Meiburg.

"The Second District is likely to remain
largely urban and the Third District an amalgam
of urban and suburban constituencies. The First
and Tenth Districts will probably retain their
suburban character. The Fourth, Fifth, Sixth,
Seventh and Ninth Districts will remain as the
most rural districts," he says.