University of Virginia Library

In Tuesday's Election

Battle, Holton Fight For Needed Votes

NEWS ANALYSIS

By Rod MacDonald
Cavalier Daily Staff Writer

The hottest gubernatorial race in
Virginia's recent history comes down to
the wire this week as the two top
candidates patch up their vote blocs and
flaunt their endorsements to capture the
still-uncommitted voters and win.

But the major implications, and the
source of a great deal of national political
attention, are the attempts of both
parties to realign their constituencies.
Major voting blocs, acting with more
independence than usual, have both
candidates looking uneasily at the shaky
and antagonistic factions in their ranks.

Democrat William Battle, a Charlottesville
attorney representing the incumbent
party with all its diversity, and insurgent
Linwood Holton, attempting to forge a
motley coalition into a Republican majority,
are neck and neck in a race that virtually no
one except the candidates themselves is trying
to predict.

Issues in the campaign have been played
down, as both candidates have concentrated on
rhetoric and amassing group support. Democrat
Battle, the winner of a bitter party primary in
the summer, has somehow managed to keep the
support of both the machine faction, led by
outgoing Governor Mills Godwin, and the more
liberal faction led by Senator Henry Howell of
Norfolk. But the coalition is shaky at best.

For example, following the Governor's
$100-a-plate businessmen's banquet for Mr.
Battle on Monday, Senator Howell held a press
conference yesterday in Richmond at which he
charged the Governor with fostering "boss
rule" and with being as "inflexible" as Mayor
Daley of Chicago. The Senator incidentally
then reaffirmed his support for the Democratic
slate led by Mr. Battle.

AFL-CIO Endorsement

Republican Holton, on the other hand, has
won the official endorsement of the state
AFL-CIO and a prominent black citizens'
organization. But, historically, neither group
has delivered much on behalf of a Republican
candidate. The defections, according to one
Washington Post analysis of a Richmond black
precinct, are mounting up, and by election day
the black voters may return to the Democratic
field.

The President's decision to help the sagging
Holton campaign has also caused national
political watchers to look deeply at the Virginia
race as an indication of the heralded "Southern
strategy." The strategy, which asserts the
Republicans can form a new majority nationally
from the south and west, is getting its first
test here with Mr. Nixon's appearance.

Pollsters Unsure

By a New York firm's poll Mr. Battle holds a
nine-point lead over his challenger, but shifting
blocks of supporters have complicated the
forecasting immensely. Most observers believe
Mr. Holton has the Republican party's first
realistic chance of winning since Reconstruction.

The President's endorsement should help,
since he carried the state in 1968 with nearly
600,000 votes, a vast difference between the
212,000 Mr. Holton received four years ago
when he ran for Governor. Such help would
require a large turnout.

On the other hand, one forecaster said "If
everyone who voted in the Democratic runoff
primary - 433,600 - votes for Mr. Battle he
would win easily because no one expects the
November 4 turnout to top 800,000."

The worth of Mr. Nixon's endorsement may
also be questioned because his own popularity
has declined substantially since taking office,
even in Virginia. Taken in that light, Mr.
Holton's campaign strategy to "work for a
change" and his frequent hints that he has ties
to the Nixon administration, may be to no
avail.

But the change theme is, according to the
Roanoke Times, a major boost. From union
halls to black voters' meetings, many citizens
tired of the Byrd machine may desert the
Democratic party if for no other reason than to
break the machine's long domination of state
government.

That is the reason cited by the AFL-CIO in
its endorsement of Mr. Holton, with the added
expectation that a defeated Democratic Party
would realign along more liberal principles.

As a result, Republican Holton may be the
beneficiary of a Democratic constituency that
has not been able to agree on one ideology.
While Governor Godwin attempts to hold the
Richmond businessmen in line in the state
party, even if they desert it in Presidential
elections, Howell is building strength in the
unions, the black groups, and the liberals who
have been heretofore quiet in state politics.

Success for either candidate will probably
depend on how skillfully-he can keep the rival
groups within his ranks in agreement on the
common purpose of winning.