University of Virginia Library

Frederick E. Nolting, Jr.

Foresees 'Competitive' Peace

By SCOTT TOLLEFSEN

"I am rather optimistic
about the present possibilities
of peace in Southeast Asia,"
Frederick E. Nolting, Jr.
former Ambassador to South
Vietnam, told a Newcomb Hall
Ballroom audience of 400
Friday night.

"I think there is going to be
a truce and a cease-fire based
on the nine points of the peace
plan and their modifications,"
he said.

Mr. Nolting, who served as
Ambassador under President
Kennedy from 1961 to 1963,
continued that such a truce
"will probably result in a five-to
ten-year 'competitive'
breathing spell with no
warfare, like the period that
followed the Geneva accords
of 1954."

After the truce and relative
calm, Mr. Nolting forecasts
that "the future of South
Vietnam will depend upon
leadership, cohesion, and self-determination
of the South
Vietnamese people."

Mr. Nolting's address was one
of a Student Legal Forum series
examining American foreign
policy.

Terms Better

The former ambassador
called the terms of the peace
negotiators' plan "the best
attainable," and remarked that
"the terms are better than I
would have expected a year or
so ago."

"Hanoi and the Viet Cong
now realize that they can't
take over South Vietnam by
violence," Mr. Nolting
explained. He said that this
realization stems from three
factors confronting Hanoi.

First, Mr. Nolting said, the
Soviet Union no longer desires
U.S. involvement in South
Vietnam. "I think it's clear,"
he said, "that the Soviet Union
has counseled Hanoi to back
off and come to terms with the
U.S.

The same thing appears to
have occurred in Peking.
According to the former
Ambassador, the second factor
is that "our involvement is not
in Peking's interests."

Forces Weakened

Mr. Nolting stated
that the Viet Cong military
forces have been weakened by
the U.S. bombing, the
Vietnamese army's resistance,
the blockade of Haiphong
harbor and the ineffectiveness
of the Viet Cong's own spring
offensives.

Mr. Nolting said the present
negotiations appear to allow
the U.S. an opportunity to
completely withdraw its active
military forces and still leave
South Vietnam with a "very

reasonable chance for
survival."

"I have some doubts that
the Thieu administration can
withstand the settlement, but I
am hopeful that they will hold
together," he said.

"I've been pessimistic about
Vietnam for nine or ten years,"
he declared. "In my opinion,
out country made a grievous
error in judgment and
character during the close of
the Kennedy administration."

"Our government
encouraged the illegal
overthrow of a constitutional
regime by a military junta,"
continued Mr. Nolting "The
dishonorable backing of the
coup d'etat against President
Diem's regime was a stupid
political blunder."

Cause Of Action

"The cause of U.S. action
was the overwhelming force of
certain segments of our press:
they painted pictures of
corruption, inefficiency, and
religious persecution in South
Vietnamese government," he
stated.

Mr. Nolting listed numerous
economical, social, medical,
and communicational
improvements in South
Vietnam over 1954 conditions,
which he attributed to the